President Obama was right when he said, “every American will need to get more than a high school diploma.” However, policy makers, Republicans and Democrats alike, are clueless when it comes to college.

College is a Competition

There are only so many well-paying, professional jobs available for college graduates each year. According to a recent Institute of Burning Glass/Strada Education Foundation study, there are two degreed candidates for every job. Half of the candidates end up underemployed, e.g. making lattes.

The reality is that almost any high school graduate can find a college or university that will accept them because only 8% of four-year institutions are selective to any serious degree. Today. your average high school graduate has a GPA of 3.0. The data shows that half of these mediocre students who matriculate graduate. There is no data on how many succeed in becoming fully employed.

Succeeding in college, graduating and scoring a “college” job,” entails engaging in a fierce competition. “Is college worth it?” depends on academic ability, school choice, major, affordability, and graduating.

Everyone loves a good story about the underdog athlete who walks on and beats the 1000 to 1 odds to make the team. Baker Mayfield was a walk-on at Texas Tech. He won the Heisman at Oklahoma and went on to be drafted by the NFL in the first round.

Every year, hundreds of thousands of “academic walk-ons” show up at freshman orientation. The only difference is they must pay tens of thousands of dollars for the privilege. Their chances of success are not much better than Mayfield’s.

Colleges and universities need to become much more selective.

Student Loans

The most effective way to avoid the burden of unmanageable debt is not borrowing wisely; it is to plan rigorously and to minimize or completely avoid debt.

• Sixty-five percent of the parents of students applying to college do not use savings plans, e.g. the 529.
• Most families do not plan college finances beyond the freshman year.
• Most college freshmen do not have a career plan, i.e. no targeted starting job, no estimated starting salary.
• Most students do not graduate in four years because of poor academic planning and/or the lack of a career plan.
• Students ignore risk. For example, a student might have a four-year financial plan, a career plan to become an engineer, and an academic plan to finish in four. Multivariable calculus could rear its ugly head and that targeted engineering starting salary could go from $65K to $45K for an entry level high school math teacher.

Once you are accepted at college, your “generous” federal government will loan you money with zero regard to your academic ability. The federal student loan system needs more rigorous underwriting standards.

Conclusion

Dr. Charles Murray wrote Real Education in 2008. Murray claimed that there are “four simple truths” about education:

1. “Ability varies.”
2. “Half of the children are below average.”
3. “Too many people are going to college.”
4. “America’s future depends on how we educate the academically gifted.”

Murray was prescient, and Artificial Intelligence is going to remind the public of his work.

I was first in my family to attend college. Eisenhower was president, and only 7% of high school students went on to college. Today, that number is at the ridiculous level of 39%. The “college-for everyone” paradigm has cost this country billions of dollars. High schools should worry less about their “college readiness” statistics and more about guiding their students into “breadwinner” careers that are suitable to their abilities.