My local newspaper ran a front page story this morning, “Applications Flood Colleges.” The story cheerfully describes how the three major colleges in southwestern Ohio had drawn applications from 60,000 students. It prompted me to fire off the following letter to the editor:

If national averages hold up in five or six years only about fifteen thousand of these kids will have good jobs. (Department of Labor.) About 26,000 will drop out and be stigmatized in the job market (Drexel University study), and half of those that do graduate will be under employed or unemployed. Thirty thousand will be paying off their student loans while working at a part time job making minimum wage, e.g. Starbucks. Five thousand will be in default on their loans.

Here’s a typical story from a mother I interviewed recently. Her daughter was a good high school student. She enrolled at Ohio University majoring in marketing. She got good grades and graduated in four years (the exception). She has gotten many interviews, but she can’t get a job. She is living at home. The only good news is that she doesn’t have very much debt because she got a lot of scholarships.

With 40% of high school graduates going to college there is a huge supply (graduates) vs demand (jobs) problem. There are 2,000,000 fewer fulltime jobs today than at the turn of the century.

I did some volunteer work last year at a local suburban high school that sends 65% of their students to college. I shared this data with the principal. His response, “We certainly don’t want the students hearing that.”

What about that mother? She’s an opthalmic technician. This requires a high school diploma. While community colleges provide certification in this field it is possible find a position where you can learn on the job while getting paid. The high end of the salary range is $70K.

Scarlett Oaks has had to discontinue their plumbing certification–no takers. (My plumber makes $100,000/year.)

Sinclair Community College in Mason, Ohio has an Industrial Maintenance certification. The class size is four—very little interest. Some of the classes are free supported by government grants. The starting salary for a fulltime job with benefits is $18.50 per hour.

Sinclair Community College in Dayton has an Associates in Applied Science degree in robotics that can lead to a fulltime job making $50,000 per year. If you chose the right employer (tuition benefit), you could then get a bachelor’s for NOTHING.

In my opinion the important story is not how wonderful it is that all these young people are going off to college. (For most of them it isn’t going to end well.) The important story is that parents and students need to ignore the advice of educators and politicians and make smarter post-secondary education decisions.

College in America doesn’t work the way it used to.

My letter to the editor never got published because it ran counter to the popular narrative that “college is for everyone.”