I keep trying to explain to you that financing your college education with student loans is really risky because the outcome is uncertain. I don’t seem to be having a lot of success. I thought I would try something different. 

I’m going to start by sharing the facts of life with you. No, not those facts, the student loan facts. There is data to back up every point I am making here. 

• Today as a high school graduate you are nothing special. Getting accepted into some college is no big deal. Almost any high school graduate can find a college or university that will accept them because the vast majority of schools (93%) are not that selective. 
• However, there are only so many well-paying, professional jobs available for college graduates every year. There is a glut of college graduates, Supply (college grads) far exceeds Demand (good jobs).  
• The federal student loan system has no underwriting standards. They will loan money to any college student without regard to their passion or their academic ability. 
• High school GPA is very predictive. Five out of eight high school graduates who matriculate have a GPA of 3.5 or better. The chance these students graduate from college is high, and they are going to be very strong candidates for one of those relatively scarce “college” jobs.  
• The chances of a high school student with a 3.0 GPA graduating from college is 50-50, a coin toss, and the odds drop rapidly from there. 
• The average six-year graduation rate for all college students is around 60%. The average six-year graduation rates for African American and Hispanic students are 42% and 50%, respectively. 
• Family income is the biggest determinate of who graduates from college. If you are a student from a family in the lowest income quintile, your chance of graduating college is 26%. If you are a student in the top income quintile, your chance of graduating college is 62%. 
• Two out of every five recent college graduates end up underemployed, e.g. making lattes. 
• For those who “roll the dice” and take out student loans, there is a 100% chance they will be receiving a bill six months after they separate from college. (Yes, that is separate, not graduate.) 

Now, I’m going to give you my opinion about what these facts mean. 

You must graduate. And that is when the competition begins. It is sort of like the musical chairs game you played in kindergarten. You are going to have to be on your toes if you expect to safely land in a seat.  

Even for those most determined and academically qualified students, borrowing to finance a college education is risky. They are not guaranteed a well-paying, professional job. A lot of stuff can go wrong. 

That leaves us with the three out of eight who are not top students. In my opinion, W-A-Y too many high school graduates, many with the “deck” stacked against them, opt for college, leaning on student loans to “pay the freight.” Most of these students would be wiser to find a Plan B because they are one of the major reasons we have a student loan crisis in this country.  

Notes

I suggest you watch, Borrowed Future, a documentary on student loans. This video is available for free on Amazon Prime.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/college-wealth-premium-collapsed/604579/

‘Don’t borrow for college,’ warns Harvard economist’—why he says it’s a ‘waste of money’ (cnbc.com) 

(46) Thomas B Walsh’s answer to Are student loans considered ‘good’ debt, and what strategies should students use while managing their debt load responsibly? – Quora