I am stretching the truth a bit here. My youngest grandchild is a college senior this year. Actually, this is the advice I would have given my grandchildren if I had known everything I know now fifteen years ago.

JFK was president when I received my undergraduate degree. Back in the day, only 7% of high school graduates went on to college. Those students tended to be the best and the brightest. College was rigorous. Demand exceeded Supply. If you managed to be awarded a bachelor’s degree, you were on your way to a middle class or better financial life.

Today every Tom, Dick, and Harriet (45%) feels compelled to matriculate. Twenty-five percent of these freshmen need remedial classes. Many schools have watered down certain academic programs, to accommodate the hoi polloi. Supply far exceeds Demand. The majority of these students have a very slim chance of crossing the finish line, graduating and scoring a well-paying, professional job.

Here is how the jobs math works. Every year about 3,000,000 students show up at freshmen orientation. Eventually, 2,000,000 of these students graduate to discover they are in a fierce competition for one of 1,000,000 “college” jobs that are available annually. The vast majority of the 2,000,000 students who don’t score a college job, are never going to earn a respectable ROI on their investment in college. AI is going to make this competition even more challenging.

But wait, there is more. How about the student loan debt math? Around sixty percent of students pursuing a bachelor’s degree need student loans. Two thirds of them are not going to end up in a good position financially, and they are going to have a tough time repaying those loans. That is why we have a student loan crisis.

In today’s economy, white-collar jobs have become an endangered species. W-A-Y too many high school grads opt for college in hopes of bagging a black rhino. Most students finishing secondary school should be exploring vocational training opportunities that lead to lucrative new-collar or blue-collar jobs.

I get a lot of criticism that I am anti-college. I am not. The late Stephen Covey wrote a famous book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People. Habit #2 is, “Start with the end in mind.” I am not telling you, “Don’t go to college.” I am telling you, “Don’t go to college if you don’t have a reasonable shot of crossing the finish line.”

I have some data. With a 3.5 high school GPA, you have a 72% chance of graduating college. IMO, those are reasonable odds. However, the competition for that white-collar job is going to be tough. My view is a standard test score at the 80th percentile is a good indicator. (SAT=1240, ACT=25)

That leaves the question of student loan debt. Taking on student loan debt is very risky. For what it is worth, I will put my thoughts in the notes.

Note

Is $50,000 in Student Loans too Much for an Undergrad Degree?